Clean hydrogen is set to become a critical pillar of the global transition towards net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, Kenya has identified renewable hydrogen as a strategic opportunity for sustainable socio-economic development, as outlined in its 2023 national hydrogen strategy.

This H2Global report explores concrete business cases for renewable hydrogen-based ammonia production in Kenya, aiming to catalyze project development aligned with the country’s ambitions.

First, a GIS-based renewable energy potential analysis was conducted to identify suitable locations for such projects. In collaboration with local stakeholders, four promising regions were selected: Turkana Central and Turkana South near Lake Turkana, the Kisumu area at Lake Victoria, and the Greater Mombasa region along the Indian Ocean coast.

Second, concrete business cases for renewable ammonia production and offtake were simulated at each of these four locations. The resulting levelized cost of ammonia (LCOA) ranged from 999 EUR/ton-NH3 in Turkana South to 2,437 EUR/ton-NH3 in Kisumu. These LCOA reveal a significant price gap compared to conventional fossil-based ammonia of more than 500 EUR/ton-NH3. However, a subsequent analysis revealed that further processing of renewable-hydrogen based ammonia to renewable fertilizer results in production costs which can be absorbed by the local market.

This suggests that renewable ammonia production in Kenya could become economically viable, while also buffering the country against global fertilizer price volatility and enhancing supply security.

The report is a product of the staff of the H2Global Foundation, IEE Fraunhofer, and the University of Strathmore.

The work was sponsored by the 7th Energy Research Program funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research as part of the research program “H2Global meets Africa”.

Download the full report now to explore the insights.